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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.